This assignment is a research paper. This means you will choose from the list of five topics below, identify your research sources, identify and apply a research method to your paper, and draft a paper that defends your main point/thesis.
You MUST choose one of the five following topics of study around which you will develop a concise and pointed conclusion/premise that will form the thesis of your paper:
1) Any aspect of early Cold War intelligence analysis (choose and use one or more cases of intelligence analysis)
2) Perform a predictive analysis on the following topic: will the Iranians and Saudis escalate into direct open warfare within the coming 12 months. You must demonstrate/use predictive analytic methods (and are forbidden to use ACH or any form of competing hypotheses–which are NOT predictive analytic methods), or
3) CIA covert action in Indonesia beginning in the 1950s, or
4) Recommend solutions to the bureaucratic and analytic problems surrounding the conflict between the CIA and MACV over enemy order of battle in Vietnam, specifically over the CIA’s The Vietnamese Communists Will to Persist (https://www.cia.gov/library/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP80T01719R000300020001-9.pdf). You will need to read and research, or finally
5) Any Soviet or Russian disinformation and propaganda campaign intended as a covert operation to influence elections (be sure you have a well documented case before starting)
Your paper must have a solid, pointed premise. A solid main point is a conclusion of analysis, based on your research, that is reasoned and pointed. You cannot choose a main point which is obvious or self-evident. You must research and draw a conclusion about what you research. Your paper’s premise must be stated as a declarative sentence in your introduction. That declarative statement is your premise or hypothesis. You must be specific, not vague or general.
IF YOUR PAPER IS NOT ON ONE OF THE ABOVE TOPICS THERE IS A SEVERE PENALTY ON THE GRADE.
You should be sure to have a thesis that addresses the topic you are focusing on and that this thesis is CLEAR and UNAMBIGUOUS. If you have any questions about your thesis you should ask them on the open discussion board for the class. It is OK to share your ideas and ask for feedback. Also, if necessary, you can ask me for input (though you are now expected to be able to develop your own theses and know that what your developing is a good thesis). Your thesis must be in the first paragraph or section of your paper.
You should also be sure to have section headings, a title page, incorporate references using the Chicago end note format. Incorporate page numbers and all the other elements of a professional paper.
Your paper should be 15-18 pages in length, double spaced, times new roman 12 point font, 1 inch margins on all 4 sides (excluding title, references, and non-essential graphs and charts). You are welcome to use graphs and charts and maps, etc., provided they add new information and support your paper. You should have a title page and a references list (neither of which count towards the assignments total page count). If graphs, charts, and other graphical information do not add new information they are NOT counted in the page count (in other words, don’t put in maps or graphs to extend the length of the paper–ONLY include necessary and required information to prove your thesis or analytic conclusion.
THE PAPER IS DUE AT THE END OF THE 7TH WEEK. THE CLASS ENDS ON A SUNDAY, WEEK 8. THERE ARE NO LATE PAPERS ACCEPTED AFTER THE CLASS CLOSES. IF YOU HAVE AN EMERGENCY OR OTHER EXTRAORDINARY CIRCUMSTANCE PLEASE CONTACT THE PROFESSOR AT LEAST 3 DAYS BEFORE THE END OF CLASS.
You should strive for 12+ references (which shouldn’t be difficult given all the reading you’ve done in your program). Be sure that your selection of sources gives you balance, that they are credible and reliable and accurate. To help you determine the appropriateness of a source, please refer to the CRAAP worksheet below.
All research papers have assumptions. These establish the boundaries of the problem, exclude difficult variables, and provide a firm starting point. While it is not necessary to have a separate section for assumptions, it is necessary that you identify them when you make them. (For instance in an examination of extremist group behavior you might note that one of your assumptions is that all the members of the group agree with how its goals are being carried out.)
Don’t do it. If you want to build upon an idea you’ve written about previously you need to let me know in advance and you also need to move your prior work forward. At no time (unless you receive prior consent from me) should you copy and paste sections of your prior course work into this paper. You must work on a topic that you’ve not worked on in the past, though you can build from your learning throughout your degree coursework. You must be attentive to quotes both direct and indirect, a refresher on writing style and Chicago referencing can be found in the course overview section of this class. Please note that at this level of your academic career, it’s assumed that you have learned how to incorporate references properly. I know this isn’t anything new for you at this point but based on experience I need to emphasize that systematic plagiarism will result in an F, less than systemic plagiarism can result in penalties up to and including an F.
POINT PENALTIES/Submission Rules:
There is a 10% penalty if the paper does not meet the “deliverable” guidelines
There is a 10% penalty if there are less than 12 reliable sources (articles, books, etc.)
There is a 10% penalty if the paper is not delivered before the due date/time.
There is a 50% penalty if the paper is not written on one of the five topics listed